5 First Round Upsets For Your Bracket Backed by Stats

March Madness has arrived, and with it comes the thrill of potential upsets that can shake up even the most meticulously crafted brackets. As fans gear up for the NCAA Tournament, here’s a breakdown of five matchups that could see the higher seeds facing unexpected challenges in round one.

#13 Yale Holds Firm Against #4 Texas A&M

The Yale Bulldogs are riding high, having won 15 of their last 16 games, with their only loss coming against Harvard on the road late in the season. Coach James Jones is making his fifth appearance in the tournament and is eager to turn past experiences into future success, eyeing that elusive trip beyond the Round of 32.

Yale’s offense is spearheaded by senior guard John Poulakidas, who leads the team with an impressive 19.2 points per game. Complementing his scoring are Nick Townsend and Bez Mbeng, each contributing over 13 points per game. Notably, Yale ranks 13th nationally in three-point shooting percentage and 12th in overall field-goal percentage, paired with a top-10 ranking in the assist-to-turnover ratio. This potent combination makes them a daunting opponent for the Aggies and could set the stage for a thrilling upset in Denver.

#11 Drake Ready to Challenge #6 Missouri

Drake may not have an official ranking, but they are positioned as a potential bracket-buster this year after finishing the season with an impressive 30-3 record, including an undefeated run in conference play. While they are searching for their first win beyond the play-in games, the Bulldogs possess a rich history in recent tournaments and a desire to make a deeper run.

After losing Head Coach Darian DeVries and star player Tucker DeVries to West Virginia in the offseason, Drake turned to former D-II standout Ben McCollum, who built a legacy at Northwest Missouri State with four national championships. Junior Bennet Stirtz, who averaged 19.1 points per game and 5.7 assists, was recognized as the conference player of the year. With his dynamic scoring ability, Stirtz could be the key player in a potential upset.

#12 McNeese State Takes on #5 Clemson

Watch out for the McNeese State Cowboys, the Southland Conference champions boasting a 27-6 record. Their performance against notable teams like Alabama and Mississippi State—losing by just eight and three points, respectively—shows they are more than capable of facing elite competition.

Guided by head coach Will Wade, who previously led LSU, McNeese State features a deep roster with four players averaging over 10 points per game. This balanced scoring approach presents a unique challenge for Clemson, as any Cowboy could step up and carry the team in crucial moments. Be prepared for a thrilling showdown as McNeese State pushes for a surprising win.

#13 Akron Aims for #4 Arizona Upset

The Akron Zips are looking to create some March Madness magic after winning the MAC championship three of the last four seasons. Finishing with 28 wins and dropping only one game in conference play to in-state rival Ohio, Akron is eager to make a statement after early exits in the last two tournaments.

Head coach John Groce has been instrumental in developing this team, and this could be a pivotal year as he approaches the end of his tenure. Star player Nate Johnson, who hails from Cincinnati, is averaging 14 points and five rebounds, and his defensive prowess will be key against Arizona’s Caleb Love. Should Akron navigate this matchup successfully, they could go deep in the tournament.

#12 Liberty Prepared to Tackle #5 Oregon

Liberty enters the tournament as the Conference-USA champions, holding a 28-6 record that includes key wins against Kansas State and fellow potential upsetters McNeese State. Despite a spotty conference record, the Flames found their stride in the conference tournament, securing their spot in the big dance.

Under the leadership of head coach Ritchie McKay, Liberty is making its third tournament appearance, bringing a solid winning percentage along with it. With four players averaging over 10 points a game, Liberty poses a multifaceted threat to Oregon, which may be one of the weakest five seeds in recent memory. The Ducks have their work cut out for them in this matchup, and a first-round exit isn’t out of the question.

As March Madness unfolds, the potential for these upsets adds to the excitement. Keep an eye on these matchups as they could very well reshape the landscape of this year’s tournament.