The Dallas Cowboys have wrapped up their 2024 season, concluding with a record of 7-10 after a narrow 23-19 defeat to Washington. It’s a bit of a come-down after three straight 12-win seasons, as Dallas will miss out on the playoffs this year. For Cowboys fans, the silver lining is knowing that their first-round draft pick is almost set in stone, barring a few twists from the late-window games still underway.
With Dallas’ loss, their pick will either be at the No. 11 or No. 12 spot in the draft. Results from other games earlier today have already shaped this outcome, with notable results being:
- Atlanta fell to Carolina, 44-38
- Indianapolis edged past Jacksonville, 26-23
- Cincinnati squeezed by Pittsburgh, 19-17
However, the Miami Dolphins’ clash with the New York Jets no longer holds any sway over Dallas’ draft slot. The remaining piece of the puzzle lies in the face-off between the San Francisco 49ers and Arizona Cardinals.
Let’s break down how these scenarios play out for Dallas:
Dallas picks No. 11 if:
- Wins come for San Francisco and Indianapolis, while Arizona, Atlanta, Miami, and Cincinnati fall.
- Add Atlanta to the winner’s circle alongside San Francisco and Indianapolis, but Arizona, Cincinnati, and Miami still need to lose.
- In a triple-threat win scenario, San Francisco, Cincinnati, and Indianapolis prevail while Arizona, Atlanta, and Miami lose.
- San Francisco, Cincinnati, Atlanta, and Indianapolis all win, with losses for Arizona and Miami.
- Combine San Francisco, Miami, and Indianapolis victories against losses for Arizona, Atlanta, and Cincinnati.
- Or have San Francisco, Miami, Atlanta, and Indianapolis win with Arizona and Cincinnati bowing out.
- Another combination can have San Francisco, Miami, Cincinnati, and Indianapolis winning, while Arizona and Atlanta fall.
- Finally, if all but Arizona win – San Francisco, Miami, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, and Atlanta – the No. 11 spot is assured.
Dallas picks No. 12 if:
- Only San Francisco wins, coupled with losses for Arizona, Indianapolis, Miami, Cincinnati, and Atlanta.
- San Francisco and Atlanta emerge victorious, while Arizona, Indianapolis, Miami, and Cincinnati lose.
- If San Francisco and Cincinnati take the win, Arizona, Indianapolis, Miami, and Atlanta need to lose.
- Wins for San Francisco and Miami require losses from Arizona, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, and Atlanta.
- San Francisco, Cincinnati, and Atlanta wins would need losses from Arizona, Indianapolis, and Miami.
- If San Francisco, Miami, and Atlanta come out on top, Arizona, Indianapolis, and Cincinnati would need to lose.
- San Francisco, Cincinnati, and Miami victories paired with Arizona, Indianapolis, and Atlanta falls will do the trick.
- San Francisco, Cincinnati, Atlanta, and Miami winning, while Arizona and Indianapolis lose, also work.
- Conversely, combine wins for Arizona and Indianapolis with losses from San Francisco, Cincinnati, Miami, and Atlanta.
- Add an Atlanta win to those by Arizona and Indianapolis, but keep San Francisco, Cincinnati, and Miami losing.
- Or Arizona and Indianapolis win along with Cincinnati, leaving San Francisco, Atlanta, and Miami to lose.
- If Arizona and Indianapolis take the game alongside Miami with San Francisco, Atlanta, and Cincinnati losing, Dallas picks No. 12.
- Wins from Arizona, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, and Atlanta against a Miami loss shift the pick spot.
- If Arizona, Indianapolis, Miami, and Atlanta all come out on top, San Francisco and Cincinnati have to stay down.
- Arizona, Indianapolis, Miami, and Cincinnati taking the win would require San Francisco and Atlanta to lose.
- If Arizona, Indianapolis, Miami, Cincinnati, and Atlanta all rack up victories, San Francisco would need to lose for a No. 12 pick.
Dallas picks No. 13 if:
- Arizona wins and San Francisco, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, Atlanta, and Miami all lose.
- Or Arizona and Atlanta come away with wins, with San Francisco, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, and Miami losing.
- Wins from Arizona and Cincinnati would need losses by San Francisco, Indianapolis, Atlanta, and Miami.
- Arizona, Cincinnati, and Atlanta victories require losses from San Francisco, Indianapolis, and Miami.
- A scenario with Arizona and Miami winning means San Francisco, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, and Atlanta lose.
- Arizona, Miami, and Atlanta wins versus a San Francisco, Indianapolis, and Cincinnati loss shift the draft to spot 13.
- Or Arizona, Miami, and Cincinnati wins, requiring San Francisco, Indianapolis, and Atlanta to lose.
- Arizona taking the day alongside Miami, Cincinnati, and Atlanta, if San Francisco loses, keeps the pick to 13.
Unfortunately, the Cowboys can’t find themselves drafting at No. 14, No. 15, or No. 16 if they remain with their current loss record. The remaining scenarios are straight forward with multiple games creating a complex lattice of outcomes, but one thing’s clear: no matter how it all falls, Dallas is in for an interesting off-season as they prime their pick for next year’s talent.
