For most of the 2025 season, Aaron Judge seemed almost inevitable. Every time he stepped to the plate, there was a sense something big was about to happen—usually, a home run that kept the Yankees in the thick of the postseason hunt and Judge atop just about every meaningful offensive leaderboard. But big seasons can take sudden turns, and this week, the Yankees’ title hopes—and the AL MVP race—got a major shakeup. Judge is officially on the injured list with a right flexor strain, forcing the Yankees and the rest of baseball to navigate a new reality.
Stepping into the Ali spotlight? Seattle Mariners’ catcher Cal Raleigh, who’s been steadily smoking baseballs all season, is now emerging as the frontrunner for AL MVP honors.
Raleigh marked his latest milestone on Sunday, crushing his 40th home run of the year against the Angels. That swing didn’t just pad his stats—it made history. Raleigh stands alone as the first switch-hitter to reach 40 homers before the end of July, a feat no one in the game has accomplished before. And by doing so, he pulled level with Yankees legend Mickey Mantle for the most home runs ever by a switch-hitter in their team’s first 105 games. Anytime you’re mentioned alongside Mantle in Yankees—or baseball—lore, you’re doing something right.
Despite those fireworks, Raleigh’s name seemed to linger just behind Judge in the MVP discussion for much of the year. Part of that is down to consistency—July has been a grind for Raleigh. He’s hitting .178 with seven homers and 14 RBIs this month, a cold streak that put some daylight between his MVP candidacy and Judge’s seemingly unstoppable campaign.
But everything changed the moment Judge went on the shelf. With the reigning MVP sidelined, oddsmakers immediately shifted focus. For the first time all season, Cal Raleigh is the odds-on favorite to take home AL MVP.
From Underdog to Favorite: Cal Raleigh’s Meteoric Rise
The sportsbooks don’t mince words—Raleigh is now listed at -115 to win the AL MVP. Judge, still a presence despite his injury, trails just behind at -110. It’s a nod to how electric Raleigh has been, and a sign of how quickly narratives can flip in baseball.
Looking at the numbers, it’s easy to see why. Raleigh leads the majors in home runs, sits second in RBIs, and holds top-three spots in both slugging percentage and OPS. We’re talking about offensive production that sets the pace for everyone else. Earlier this month, Raleigh got to live out another of his baseball dreams by winning the Home Run Derby. With the way things are trending, he could be in for even bigger hardware by October.
Meanwhile, the Yankees organization waits anxiously for positive news on their captain. Manager Aaron Boone told reporters that Judge is expected to return after his 10-day injured list stint. However, Boone made it clear Judge will likely ease back into action as a designated hitter before reclaiming his spot in the outfield.
So, as we head into the heart of the summer, all eyes are on the AL MVP race. Can Judge make a statement return and reclaim the top spot? Or will Cal Raleigh keep swinging his way into the history books and finish off a dream season with the game’s most coveted individual award? Either way, this is exactly the kind of drama that makes baseball in late July can’t-miss entertainment.
