When delving into the realm of fantasy football, particularly at the running back position, the significance of touchdowns cannot be overstated. In the previous season, a striking 24% of overall running back fantasy scoring stemmed from these crucial plays. This trend is evident among the top performers: the eight running backs who dominated in PPR fantasy points also led the pack in touchdowns. Moreover, a majority of the single-game performances where running backs exceeded 30 fantasy points were fueled by multiple touchdowns.
However, predicting year-over-year touchdown production in this position can be as tricky as dodging a tackler. Last season, twelve running backs found the end zone ten times or more, but only seven managed to replicate that feat in the current year, with this group experiencing an average drop of 3.2 touchdowns and nearly 30 fewer PPR fantasy points.
Sifting through the tapestry of player skills, physical characteristics, and a sprinkle of good fortune, let’s unpack the most promising candidates poised to rack up touchdowns in the upcoming season.
The Eight Best RB Touchdown Bets
1. Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions: Gibbs has proven to be a quintessential dual threat, marrying explosive speed with remarkable efficiency in scoring situations. Leading the league in explosive play rate, he’s magnificent when it comes to finding the end zone. At a compact 5-foot-9 and 202 pounds, he may not fit the mold of a conventional goal-line back, but his ability to navigate tight spaces and dash to daylight is unparalleled.
2. Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams: While Williams may not possess the burst of an elite zone runner, his exceptional vision and ability to maintain balance through traffic make him a scoring machine. His knack for converting goal-line situations into touchdowns has solidified his reputation as a dependable fantasy starter over the past three seasons.
3. Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens: Despite his advancing age and substantial career touches, Henry continues to be a top-tier touchdown threat. Known for his incredible power and size, he dominates close to the goal line, leading in touchdown production from within three yards and delivering scores from outside the red zone. His combination of strength and speed can be a game-changer, especially when he gets rolling.
4. Josh Jacobs, Green Bay Packers: Jacobs has demonstrated a remarkable ability to convert red zone opportunities into touchdowns with an impressive success rate. His power running style is ideally suited for goal-line situations. In Green Bay’s run-oriented system, Jacobs is poised to capitalize on scoring chances, making him a valuable asset in any fantasy lineup.
5. James Cook, Buffalo Bills: Cook has an explosive playmaking ability that can lead to touchdowns from anywhere on the field. He was effective not only in breaking off long runs but also in goal-line situations last year. His agile and decisive running style is conducive to finding paydirt, and he’s proven he can score in various ways.
6. David Montgomery, Detroit Lions: As a downhill runner with impressive contact balance, Montgomery finds himself in a prime position to score. His physical style meshes beautifully with the Lions’ running game strategies. Having an established track record of finding the end zone, he’ll be an essential part of the offensive scheming.
7. Joe Mixon, Houston Texans: The signing of Mixon has proven beneficial for the Texans, combining patient running with a powerful finish. His scoring prowess inside the red zone makes him a valuable weapon, equipped to convert those pivotal attempts into points.
8. Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons: Robinson’s dynamic playmaking abilities make him a potent scoring threat. With a combination of speed and creativity, he can execute both perimeter and downhill running plays effectively. His potential for big plays will keep defenses on high alert throughout the season.
Fantasy Football Sleepers to Watch
1. Tank Bigsby, Jacksonville Jaguars: With a build suited for goal-line scenarios, Bigsby could emerge as a key player for Jacksonville. Having shown he can score effectively, he’s a name to watch as the starting option within striking distance of the end zone.
2. Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots: Though rookie TreVeyon Henderson has garnered a great deal of attention, Stevenson’s established record as a reliable goal-line back positions him as a stealthy contender for touchdowns this season.
3. J.K. Dobbins, Denver Broncos: Dobbins has begun to look sharper and more explosive, making him a candidate to make significant waves in the end zone. His physical running style primes him for key touchdown opportunities.
4. Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Even with the emergence of rookie running back Bucky Irving, White’s proven effectiveness near the goal line makes him a player to monitor. His agility seems to shine brightest in the smallest spaces.
In the continuously evolving landscape of fantasy football, understanding these players’ scoring potential can serve as a foundation for making informed roster decisions. Whether you’re looking to secure a top-tier star or gamble on a sleeper, knowing which running backs are primed to find the end zone will be critical to your team’s success this season.
