After a nightmare 4-13 season in 2024, the New England Patriots weren’t expected to inspire much confidence heading into the new year.
But swapping Jerod Mayo for Mike Vrabel will more than inspire hope for a Patriots fanbase desperate to get back to their winning ways.
As the 2025 NFL schedule was released and sportsbooks unveiled early betting lines for all 272 regular-season matchups, one surprising trend emerged: oddsmakers are impressed with the new-look Patriots.
According to DraftKings Sportsbook, New England opens as the betting favorite in 11 of its 17 regular-season games – a striking vote of confidence for a team many believed was in the middle of a rebuild.
The numbers seem almost too generous for a team that just wrapped up a four-win season and carries a projected win total of 8.5 in 2025 – But the data holds up.
Here’s a breakdown of where the Patriots are favored:
Week 1 vs. Raiders (-3.5)
Week 3 vs. Steelers (-1.5)
Week 4 vs. Panthers (-3.5)
Week 6 at Saints (-3)
Week 7 at Titans (-1.5)
Week 8 vs. Browns (-5.5)
Week 9 vs. Falcons (-3)
Week 11 vs. Jets (-5.5)
Week 13 vs. Giants (-3)
Week 17 at Jets (-1.5)
Week 18 vs. Dolphins (-2.5)
While each of these spreads falls within one possession – and seven are by a field goal or less – the sheer number of favored matchups is notable.
The shift in sentiment can likely be attributed to major offseason changes, headlined by the hiring of Vrabel.
The former Patriots linebacker returns to Foxborough after a successful stint with the Titans, bringing a physical, no-nonsense approach that the team hopes will rejuvenate its culture.
Also fueling optimism is the overhaul of a roster that had been left depleted in the final days of Bill Belichick.
With new leadership and fresh talent on both sides of the ball, there’s a sense that New England could quickly turn the page.
Of course, early lines are far from guarantees.
These odds will evolve once the season begins, injuries pile up, and teams either live up to or fall short of expectations.
But for now, oddsmakers appear to believe that quarterback Drake Maye and the Patriots are poised for a major bounce-back year.
In a league driven by parity and unpredictability, the early message from Vegas is clear: don’t sleep on Mike Vrabel’s Patriots.
What are your thoughts on the Patriots being favored in so many matchups? … Can you see them making the playoffs this season???
