The 2025 NCAA Tournament’s opening weekend may have lacked the chaos college basketball fans crave, with only one double-digit seed surviving to the Sweet 16: 10-seed Arkansas. The Razorbacks, who stunned 2-seed St. John’s 81-74 on Saturday, are the lone Cinderella left standing after a first weekend dominated by favorites. Now, as the Sweet 16 tips off on Thursday, March 27, Arkansas faces 3-seed Texas Tech, while blue-bloods like Duke, Houston, and Florida aim to keep the chalk rolling. With no spreads exceeding double digits, the stage is set for tight matchups—here’s a look at the favorites most likely to advance to the Elite Eight.
Duke (-9.5) vs. Arizona: Duke, the heaviest favorite at -9.5, has been a juggernaut, even without Maliq Brown, who might return this weekend after missing the first two rounds with a sprained ankle. The Blue Devils crushed 9-seed Baylor 84-62 in the round of 32, led by Cooper Flagg’s 22 points, 10 rebounds, and four blocks. Arizona, a 5-seed, has hit its stride, with Caleb Love averaging 21 points in the tournament, but they lack the depth to match Duke’s talent. The Blue Devils’ defense, which held opponents to 38.2% shooting in the first two games, should stifle the Wildcats, likely covering the spread and advancing comfortably.
Houston (-8.5) vs. Purdue: Top-seeded Houston, a -8.5 favorite, has been a model of consistency, winning the Big 12 with a 29-5 record. The Cougars survived a tough 8-seed Gonzaga in the round of 32, winning 77-69 behind L.J. Cryer’s 24 points and a defense that forced 15 turnovers. Purdue, a 4-seed, looked solid against weaker competition, beating 13-seed Samford and 12-seed Colorado State, but their late-season struggles—losing four of their last seven Big Ten games—raise doubts. Houston’s relentless defense (No. 2 in KenPom adjusted efficiency) and depth should overwhelm the Boilermakers, who rely heavily on Braden Smith (16.8 points, 7.5 assists). The Cougars are on a mission and should cruise to the Elite Eight.
Florida (-6.5) vs. Maryland: Florida, a 1-seed, faces a 5-seed Maryland team mired in distractions, with rumors swirling about coach Kevin Willard’s potential move to Villanova. The Gators, 31-4, are battle-tested after outlasting 8-seed UConn 82-78 in the round of 32, a game where Walter Clayton Jr. dropped 28 points. Maryland needed a buzzer-beater from Jahmir Young to escape 12-seed Colorado State, but their focus seems fractured. Florida’s balanced attack—five players average double figures—and top-10 offense (85.2 points per game) should exploit Maryland’s turmoil, sending the Gators to the Elite Eight with relative ease.
The Sweet 16 slate promises drama, starting Thursday with 2-seed Alabama (-5.5) vs. BYU at 7:09 ET, followed by Florida-Maryland at 7:39 ET, Duke-Arizona, and Arkansas-Texas Tech. Friday features 2-seed Michigan State (-3.5) vs. Ole Miss at 7:09 ET, 2-seed Tennessee (-4.5) vs. Kentucky at 7:39 ET, 1-seed Auburn (-8.5) vs. Michigan, and Houston-Purdue. Arkansas, led by John Calipari, has defied the odds, but Texas Tech’s elite defense (No. 5 in adjusted efficiency) might end their run in a 67-61 grinder, as predicted earlier by Chat GPT. While favorites like Duke, Houston, and Florida look poised to advance, the tight spreads—none over 9.5—suggest at least one upset could shake things up. By Friday night, only eight teams will remain, and the road to the Final Four in San Antonio will be clearer. Buckle up for a thrilling weekend.
