Stunning Collapse: Braves Lose After 0.1% Diamondbacks Win Probability

Jun 5, 2025; Cumberland, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Braves center fielder Michael Harris II (23) can’t catch the double hit by Arizona Diamondbacks right fielder Corbin Carroll (7) (not shown) during the ninth inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

The Atlanta Braves’ 11-10 collapse against the Arizona Diamondbacks on Thursday was a gut punch, a game that slipped away in the ninth inning despite a 10-4 lead. Homers from Austin Riley, Ronald Acuña Jr., and Drake Baldwin had the Braves in control, but the Diamondbacks mounted a staggering seven-run rally. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Alek Thomas homered, Ketel Marte and Ildemaro Vargas drove in runs with singles, and Eugenio Suarez’s RBI double with two outs and a full count flipped the script. The Diamondbacks sealed it with a double play, leaving the Braves stunned and their win probability, which was 99.9% in the top of the ninth, in shambles.

Jun 5, 2025; Cumberland, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Braves relief pitcher Raisel Iglesias (26) pitches against the Arizona Diamondbacks during the ninth inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

For the Braves, it’s a bitter pill. They’ve now lost four straight and 11 of their last 14, dropping to 27-34 after a promising start that saw them at 24-24 on May 20. This loss, their third time scoring 10 runs this season, is a microcosm of their struggles. They’re tied for 22nd in the league in runs per game (four), per TeamRankings, making Thursday’s failure to hold on even more frustrating. The series sweep by the Diamondbacks, a team they outscored 12-11 over three games, is a stark reminder of their inconsistency. As they head into a six-game road trip starting Friday night against the San Francisco Giants, the pressure’s on the pitching staff to rebound.

This collapse is a story of what could have been, a game that should have been a statement win but instead became a symbol of the Braves’ season. For fans, it’s a mix of disbelief and disappointment, but for the team, it’s a call to action. The 2025 season is young, but for the Braves, it’s about finding consistency, whether it’s holding leads or generating offense. Stay tuned, because this story’s got legs, and for the Braves, it’s about turning the page. The Diamondbacks’ comeback was historic, but for Atlanta, it’s a lesson in resilience. The road trip looms, and with it, a chance to right the ship.