When you break it down, the crux of NFL success often hinges on one pivotal question: “Do we have our quarterback?” In the past two decades, besides a couple of notable exceptions like Nick Foles’ incredible journey with the Philadelphia Eagles in 2017 and Joe Flacco’s reign with the Ravens in 2012, every Super Bowl champion has been led by an elite quarterback. This raises eyebrows around the ongoing debate about Flacco’s status; while he delivered in clutch moments, he did fall just short of being deemed “elite” by many critics.
In today’s game, having that top-tier quarterback is nearly a necessity if you want to raise the Lombardi Trophy. It essentially narrows the field of true Super Bowl contenders to just a few teams each season. This leads us to a pressing question surrounding the Denver Broncos: Can Bo Nix step into the spotlight and lead this franchise back to contender status?
As we head into his sophomore season, it’s important to temper expectations. Nix steps onto the field with a solid foundation, but few would argue he fits the elite mold just yet. The key question remains: will he ever elevate his game to the level required to guide the Broncos to a Super Bowl?
The signs aren’t pointing in that direction. The most telling aspect of a truly elite quarterback is their ability to uplift those around them. Look at names like Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson; both have a knack for maximizing the potential of their supporting cast. In contrast, Nix’s rookie season was more about the talent around him doing the lifting rather than him elevating the Broncos’ offense.
Sure, Nix had a commendable debut season, leading the team to a 10-7 record that allowed them to squeak into the playoffs. However, context is key here. More than half of those wins came against lesser opponents, and while they did manage a victory over the Chiefs in Week 18, it’s important to note that Kansas City had already begun resting key players in preparation for their playoff push.
While the Broncos’ win-loss record might initially impress, the underlying offensive performance tells a different story. They relied heavily on their elite defense, which consistently stepped up to secure critical victories. Let’s take a look at the offensive statistics from last season:
- Scoring Offense: 10th
- Total Offense: 19th
- Yards Per Play: 18th
- EPA Per Play: 16th
- Offensive Success Rate: 18th
Now, switching gears to the defense, the statistics are quite striking:
- Scoring Defense: 3rd
- Total Defense: 7th
- Yards Per Play: 2nd
- EPA Per Play: 1st
- Defensive Success Rate: 2nd
From these figures, it’s clear that while the Broncos managed to secure wins, it was largely thanks to a shutdown defense rather than an explosive offensive showing.
Dissecting Nix’s contributions further, he found himself operating behind one of the league’s elite offensive lines, often making relatively easy throws. In fact, a significant 22.2 percent of his attempts came on passes thrown behind the line of scrimmage—this is the second-highest rate in the league, just behind Tua Tagovailoa, who faced a significantly more challenging situation with a porous line.
Much of Nix’s success can be attributed to having time to operate in the pocket and a solid offensive scheme, thanks in large part to head coach Sean Payton. However, while he showcased some promising traits, one has to question whether he displayed the necessary tools to reach that elite quarterback ceiling. His performance heavily relied on external factors, rather than purely his innate talent.
So, can Bo Nix carve out a successful path in Denver? If we define success as hoisting Super Bowl trophies, then it seems unlikely. For now, the Broncos may need to reassess their trajectory if they want to once again become a force to be reckoned with in the postseason.
