The Baltimore Orioles are grappling with a disappointing 13-20 start in 2025, sitting last in the AL East, but their young star, Gunnar Henderson, remains a beacon of hope—and a potential financial juggernaut. In a May 5, 2025, ESPN article, MLB insider Jeff Passan speculated that Henderson, the 23-year-old shortstop, could command a free agent contract surpassing Juan Soto’s 15-year, $765 million deal with the New York Mets, projecting a $600 million-plus payday when he hits free agency after the 2028 season. Despite the Orioles’ offensive struggles (.229 team average, 29th in runs with 126), Henderson’s hot streak and elite potential at a premium position make him a candidate to redefine the market. Let’s dive into Henderson’s case, his 2025 performance, and whether he can lead Baltimore back to contention.
Passan’s bold claim hinges on Henderson’s youth, position, and trajectory. Debuting at 21 in 2022, Henderson will be just 27 when he hits free agency, younger than Soto (26) when he signed his $51 million AAV deal. “Henderson plays a far more important position than Soto’s right field,” Passan wrote, noting that even a potential move to third base would retain his positional edge. Shortstop contracts, like Corey Seager’s 10-year, $325 million deal with Texas, carry a premium, and Henderson’s 9.1 WAR in 2024—best by an Oriole since Cal Ripken Jr.—outshines Soto’s 8.2 WAR. His 2024 season (.280/.351/.489, 37 HRs, 92 RBIs, 9.4 WAR) earned him an All-Star nod, a Silver Slugger, and a third-place AL MVP finish, setting a high bar. Passan estimates a 12-year, $600 million deal ($50 million AAV), potentially topping $700 million if Henderson sustains his 4.6 WAR rookie pace and MLB revenues grow.
Henderson’s 2025 season, while solid, reflects the Orioles’ broader struggles. Through 33 games, he’s hitting .260/.333/.382 with three homers, five RBIs, and a 1.1 WAR, per Baseball-Reference. His recent hot streak—back-to-back multi-hit games, including a 3-for-5, one-homer performance against Kansas City on May 3—has lifted his average from .238, per ESPN. His .400 batting average against four-seam fastballs and 94.3 mph exit velocity (87th percentile) show his bat speed, but a 25.1% strikeout rate and .143 average with runners in scoring position mirror Baltimore’s clutch woes (.572 OPS with RISP, 28th). Still, his 13 stolen bases and 8.1% walk rate keep him impactful, and his leadership—urging teammates to “string it together” without forcing it, per the Baltimore Sun—has steadied a young clubhouse.
The Orioles’ 13-20 record, 8.5 games behind the Yankees, is a far cry from their 101-61 peak in 2023 and 91-71 wild-card run in 2024. Their .502 OPS against left-handed pitchers (worst in MLB history, per FanGraphs) and .701 OPS vs. righties (18th) have produced 3.4 runs per game (28th). Injuries to pitchers Grayson Rodriguez (elbow), John Means (forearm), and Kyle Bradish (UCL sprain) have left a 5.62 ERA (29th), despite Zach Eflin’s 3.12 ERA. The offense, expected to carry a depleted rotation, has faltered beyond Henderson, with Adley Rutschman (.231, two HRs), Ryan Mountcastle (.220, one HR), and Jordan Westburg (.255, three HRs) underperforming. Baltimore’s 4th-ranked barrel rate (7.0%) and hard-hit rate (44.3%) suggest bad luck—.252 expected BA vs. .229 actual—but a 28.1% chase rate (22nd) and 52 runners left on base in seven games point to execution issues.
Henderson’s $600 million projection isn’t guaranteed. His .260 average and three homers pale next to his 2024 pace (37 HRs, .893 OPS), and a .715 OPS vs. lefties (down from .821) exposes a weakness. Soto’s .288 career average and 7.9 WAR per 162 games set a high bar, and Henderson’s 6.2 WAR per 162 is closer but reliant on defense (11 DRS at SS in 2024). If he maintains a 5.0 WAR pace through 2028, with 30-plus homers and Gold Glove-caliber play, he could hit $650 million, especially with inflation pushing top contracts higher—Shohei Ohtani’s $700 million deferral-heavy deal is a benchmark. But a slide to a .250 average or a move to third base could cap him at $400 million, like Manny Machado’s 11-year, $350 million extension.
For Baltimore, Henderson’s future is tied to their playoff hopes. A favorable stretch—no lefty starters through May 14, starting with Minnesota’s Bailey Ober (4.15 ERA) on May 7—offers a chance to exploit their .936 OPS in wins. Cedric Mullins (205 wRC+), Westburg (151 wRC+), and Jackson Holliday (.280 in Triple-A) could ignite the lineup, and prospects like Coby Mayo (.529 vs. lefties in Triple-A) await call-ups. The Orioles’ plus-8 run differential and 6-4 record in one-run games suggest they’re closer to .500 than their 13-20 mark, but a 1-6 skid and 17 games with two or fewer runs demand urgency. Henderson’s .333 OBP and 4.6 WAR rookie precedent make him the catalyst, and his call to “progress in the right way” echoes manager Brandon Hyde’s plea for better at-bats, per MASN.
The road ahead is tough. The AL East’s depth—Tampa Bay (19-18), Boston (18-19)—and a rotation leaning on Charlie Morton (5.12 ERA) and Tomoyuki Sugano (4.88 ERA) test Baltimore’s resilience. If Henderson sustains his hot streak (7-for-13 in three games) and Rutschman (.321 OBP) heats up, the Orioles could climb to 20-25 by June, eyeing a wild-card spot (4.5 games back). A $600 million contract seems distant with the team’s 27th-ranked point differential (-62), but Henderson’s youth, power (37 HRs in 2024), and shortstop glove make Passan’s projection plausible. For now, he’s Baltimore’s spark, and tonight’s Twins game is a chance to start the turnaround. Keep swinging, Gunnar—the O’s need you to steer the ship.
