SEC Analyst Paul Finebaum Says Oklahoma Won’t Win 9 Games This Season

Apr 12, 2025; Norman, OK, USA; Oklahoma Sooners head coach Brent Venables does an interview during the Crimson Combine at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

Every college football team has its eyes set on the ultimate prize: qualifying for the College Football Playoff. With the introduction of the 12-team playoff format, there’s more opportunity than ever for teams to carve their path to the postseason and compete for a coveted national championship.

Since the playoff’s inception in 2014, history shows that claiming a spot requires a hefty dose of success on the field. Notably, no team has entered the playoff with fewer than ten wins in a season. A close contender was the Clemson Tigers last year, who finished at 10-3 after securing a spot by winning the ACC Championship Game.

This season, the Oklahoma Sooners find themselves under the microscope. SEC Network analyst Paul Finebaum recently shared his thoughts on the team’s chances for a winning season on “The Paul Finebaum Show.” He expressed concerns about the Sooners’ ability to reach the nine-win mark.

“I see four losses that they can’t get out of,” Finebaum articulated, echoing concerns that many fans may share. He suggested that reaching eight wins could be a minimum requirement for the Sooners.

Oklahoma’s schedule is certainly no cakewalk. According to Athlon Sports, they face the second-toughest slate in college football this year. The Sooners will have challenging home games against teams like Michigan, Auburn, Ole Miss, Missouri, and LSU. On top of that, they’ll face Texas in a neutral-site matchup and brave tough road trips to South Carolina, Tennessee, and Alabama.

Yet, there is a silver lining for the Sooners. They return a solid 69% of their production from last year, ranking them 10th in the nation. They’ve also revamped their offensive talent after a disappointing season where they ranked 113th in total offense and 119th in passing. This prompted head coach Brent Venables to make a bold move by firing offensive coordinator Seth Littrell midseason and hiring Ben Arbuckle from Washington State to breathe new life into the offense.

Arbuckle isn’t coming alone; he’s bringing along his former quarterback, John Mateer, who recently transferred to Oklahoma. Mateer, the No. 2 overall player in the transfer portal, is poised to take the reins after Jackson Arnold transferred to Auburn. Last season, Mateer showcased his skills with an impressive 3,139 passing yards and 29 touchdowns against just seven interceptions, alongside 826 rushing yards and 15 rushing touchdowns.

Adding further depth to the roster, the Sooners have secured former California Golden Bears star running back Jaydn Ott. Although he faced injury setbacks last season, finishing with 385 yards and four touchdowns, Ott rebounded with a remarkable 2023, accumulating 1,315 rushing yards and 14 total touchdowns.

The Sooners will kick off their season against Illinois State on August 30. It’s a pivotal moment for the program as they look to navigate a treacherous schedule and return to prominence in the college football landscape. With their mix of returning talent and new offensive strategies, fans can only hope that Oklahoma can defy the odds and make a strong push toward playoff contention.