The 2023 World Series will feature two teams that were both in the basement of their divisions in 2021. The Rangers and Diamondbacks have made a remarkable turnaround, thanks to smart trades and signings, emerging young stars and brilliant managing. They have defied all expectations to reach the final stage of the season.
But who will win it all? We can get some clues from the odds from BetMGM and Sporting News’ postseason model, which runs the World Series 20,000 times and shows the winners of each.
World Series 2023 odds Winner: Rangers -175; Diamondbacks +155
World Series 2023 model projection Winner: Rangers, 68.2% Average games: 6.3
The odds and the model agree: The Rangers are the favorites to win the World Series. They have a potent and deep offense that can score in bunches. They ranked fourth in MLB with a wRC+ of 114 during the regular season and exploded for 20 runs in the last two games of the ALCS. They have 10 players who hit at least 10 homers, led by Adolis Garcia and Corey Seager, who both cleared 30.
The Rangers don’t have any easy outs in their lineup. Marcus Semien is a versatile leadoff hitter, while Josh Jung had a terrific rookie year and a strong postseason. Their catching duo of Mitch Graver and Jonah Heim have been productive at the plate, and Evan Carter has been a spark plug this postseason.
The Rangers’ weakness is their pitching. Max Scherzer has not been himself since coming back from injury, and while Jordan Montgomery and Nathan Eovaldi have been excellent, they don’t have another reliable starter. Josh Sborz and Aroldis Chapman have been solid setup men, but Jose Leclerc has been shaky as a closer, giving up two homers to Jose Altuve in the last three games of the series.
The Diamondbacks have a different offensive approach: They rely on speed and aggressiveness. They stole 166 bases in the regular season, second only to the Reds (190). They have kept running in the postseason, with Corbin Carroll, Christian Walker and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. all stealing at least three bases.
The Diamondbacks don’t have as much depth as the Rangers, but they have a dangerous top of the order. Carroll, a rookie sensation, is a rare combination of power and speed. Ketel Marte is a tough out who can hit for average and power. Gabriel Moreno has been a steady hitter in the lineup, and Tommy Pham and Alek Thomas have shown some pop in the outfield.
The Diamondbacks’ pitching has been impressive, especially against a powerful Phillies’ lineup. Merrill Kelly and rookie Brandon Pfaadt have been dominant starters for Arizona, both with ERAs under 3.00. Zac Gallen has had a rough postseason (5.24 ERA), but he is a Cy Young candidate who could bounce back at any time.
The Diamondbacks also have a strong bullpen. Torey Lovullo has done a great job of managing his relievers, trusting Ryan Thompson, Kevin Ginkel and Paul Sewald to finish games. Thompson has an ERA of 2.53 and Ginkel and Sewald have not allowed any runs this postseason.
Both teams had to overcome formidable opponents to get here. The Rangers knocked off the wild card Rays, the AL-best Orioles and the defending AL champion Astros. The Diamondbacks eliminated the NL Central champion Brewers, the 100-win Dodgers and the reigning NL champion Phillies. Both teams clinched Game 7s on enemy territory.
This postseason has been full of surprises. But there is one possible x-factor for the series: Heim’s arm. He was among the best catchers in throwing out runners in the regular season, which could slow down the Diamondbacks’ running game that caused trouble for the Phillies in the last two games.
It’s hard to pick a winner for this series. Both teams have their strengths, but home runs are harder to stop than stolen bases, and Heim’s arm could make a difference. The Rangers’ offense is more powerful and deeper than the Phillies’, and will challenge the Diamondbacks’ pitching more.
Scherzer, who was drafted by the Diamondbacks in 2006, could find his groove again after making his first two playoff starts, and give the Rangers some much needed innings.
In a World Series between two young and exciting teams with different styles, I’ll go with the power hitters over the speedsters. So, Pick: Rangers win in 7