The Baltimore Orioles are mired in a troubling offensive drought that’s threatening their playoff aspirations in the 2025 season, despite a roster brimming with young talent like Gunnar Henderson. With a 15-22 record as of May 7, 2025, the Orioles sit last in the AL East, 8.5 games behind the first-place New York Yankees, per MLB.com. Their offense, expected to be a strength, has been erratic, ranking 29th in runs scored (126) and 27th in batting average (.229), a far cry from their 2023 and 2024 campaigns when they averaged 5.0 and 4.8 runs per game, respectively. Henderson, the 23-year-old shortstop and 2024 All-Star, offered insight into the team’s mindset, telling the Baltimore Sun’s Matt Weyrich, “Just can’t go out there and try to force it to happen. Just got to go out there and try to string it together each and every night, and go out there and try to progress in the right way.” Let’s unpack the Orioles’ struggles, Henderson’s role, and whether they can salvage their season in a wide-open playoff race.
The Orioles’ offensive woes are stark, particularly against left-handed pitching, where they’ve posted a .502 OPS, the worst in MLB history, per FanGraphs data cited on X. Against right-handers, they’re mediocre, with a .701 OPS (18th) and .241 average (20th), per Baseball-Reference. Their 3.4 runs per game average is 28th, and they’ve scored two or fewer runs in 17 of 37 games, including a 1-6 stretch against lefty starters where they managed just 10 runs (1.43 per game). Key metrics highlight the issue: 28th in line drive rate (21.5%), 28th in OPS with runners in scoring position (.572), and 30th in OPS vs. lefties (.492), despite strong contact quality (4th in barrel rate at 7.0%, 4th in hard-hit rate at 44.3%). This suggests a mix of bad luck—6th in expected slugging (.424) vs. actual (.374)—and poor execution, with a 6-for-57 (.105) average with RISP over their last seven games.
Henderson’s quote reflects a team grappling with pressing, a sentiment he echoed in 2024 when he noted players “try not to do too much” after a second-half slide, per MLB.com’s Jake Rill. At Colorado, he played 1,242 snaps (664 offensive, 578 defensive) across 12 games, an unsustainable 103.5 snaps per game for the NFL’s 17-game grind. His 2025 season has been solid but not spectacular: .278/.342/.456, five homers, 18 RBIs, and a 1.3 WAR in 29 games, per ESPN. After missing the first seven games with a right intercostal strain, he’s gone 1-for-4 with a single and an error in his April 4 return, per Camden Chat. His .400 average against four-seam fastballs is a bright spot, but teammates like Ryan Mountcastle (.077 vs. fastballs) and Jordan Westburg (.125) are struggling, exacerbating the team’s inconsistency.
The Orioles’ pitching, surprisingly, hasn’t been the problem. Despite a 5.62 ERA (29th) from the rotation, starters like Zach Eflin (3.12 ERA) and Cade Povich (2.97 xFIP) have kept games close, and the bullpen’s 3.77 FIP ranks 12th. However, injuries to Grayson Rodriguez (elbow inflammation) and seven other starters, plus Felix Bautista’s delayed return from Tommy John surgery, have strained the staff. The offense’s failure to capitalize—scoring 7.8 runs per game in wins but 2.1 in losses—has squandered these efforts. Manager Brandon Hyde’s matchup-heavy lineups, often benching stars like Adley Rutschman or Colton Cowser (out with a thumb fracture), haven’t helped, leading to a .179 average and .501 OPS in losses.
There’s hope on the horizon. The Orioles face a stretch without left-handed starters, starting with a May 7 matchup against Minnesota’s Bailey Ober (4.15 ERA), per MLB.com’s game preview. This could let them exploit their .313 average and .936 OPS in wins, driven by Cedric Mullins (205 wRC+), Westburg (151 wRC+), and Jackson Holliday (150 wRC+). Henderson’s leadership—both as a vocal motivator and leadoff hitter (37 HRs, .893 OPS in 2024)—is critical. His 9.1 WAR in 2024, the best by an Oriole since Cal Ripken Jr., per FanGraphs, makes him the lineup’s linchpin. Prospects like Holliday (.280, two HRs) and Coby Mayo (.529/.579/1.471 vs. lefties in Triple-A) could provide a spark if called up.
To turn things around, the Orioles must simplify their approach, as Henderson suggests. Their 4th-ranked barrel rate and 90.3 mph exit velocity show they’re hitting the ball hard, but a 7th-ranked expected batting average (.252) vs. actual (.229) screams bad luck. Reducing chase rates (28.1%, 22nd) and boosting contact with RISP—where they’ve left 52 men on base in seven games—could unlock their potential. GM Mike Elias admitted to 105.7 The Fan that “we’ve got guys that aren’t performing well” and moves like signing Charlie Morton and Tomoyuki Sugano haven’t panned out, but he remains optimistic about the roster’s 25 WAR projection (6th-best among hitters).
The playoff picture is still within reach. At 15-22, the Orioles trail the third wild-card spot by 4.5 games, with the AL East’s Tampa Bay (19-18) and Boston (18-19) faltering, per ESPN standings. Their plus-10 run differential suggests they’re closer to .500 than their record shows, and a favorable schedule—10 of their next 15 games against sub-.500 teams like Minnesota and Washington—offers a chance to build momentum. If Henderson (.342 OBP) and Rutschman (.321 OBP) set the table, and Mullins (21 stolen bases in 2024) and O’Hearn (.292 vs. righties) keep producing, the offense could wake up.
The risks are real. A 1-6 record in their last seven games, with fans on X noting a “stunning regression” since 2023’s 101-61 peak, signals deeper issues. The loss of Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander in free agency, coupled with a “Potemkin rotation” of mid-tier starters, has thinned their margin for error. If the offense doesn’t gel, a sub-.400 win percentage could bury them by June. Yet, Henderson’s call for patience and process—backed by his 4.6 WAR as a rookie and 37 homers in 2024—offers a blueprint. With 125 games left, the Orioles aren’t out of it. A reset, as Henderson urges, could turn hard-hit outs into hits and spark a run to October. For now, it’s one at-bat at a time—starting tonight against the Twins.
