In the recent announcement of the BBWAA vote for the 2024 Baseball Hall of Fame class, Billy Wagner fell just shy of induction with 73.8% of the vote, marking his ninth attempt on the ballot. However, there are strong reasons to believe that his 10th and final year on the ballot next winter could lead to his induction.
One factor working in Wagner’s favor is the removal of several strong candidates from the ballot. This year, Adrián Beltré, Joe Mauer, and Todd Helton were inducted into the Hall of Fame, while Gary Sheffield failed to reach the 75% threshold in his 10th year. With Ichiro Suzuki and CC Sabathia likely to be added next year, there will be fewer strong contenders.
Moreover, history has shown that candidates often receive a final-year bump in voting. Players who have come close to induction in their ninth year tend to make it in their tenth. Wagner is only 1.2 percentage points away from the required threshold, making his chances favorable.
Looking at historical data, many players who reached over 70% with eligibility remaining were eventually voted into the Hall the following year. While there were some close calls, most made it comfortably, including fellow relievers like Wilhelm, Gossage, and Hoffman.
Only two players have landed between 70% and 75% with eligibility remaining and failed to make the Hall via the BBWAA vote. Jim Bunning reached 70% in his 11th year but eventually made it through the Veteran’s Committee, while Curt Schilling sabotaged his candidacy and fell short in his 10th year.
Here is a list of players who reached 70% and higher with eligibility remaining and made it into the Hall of Fame the following year:
– Joe Medwick (1967, 72.6%)
– Roy Campanella (1968, 72.4%)
– Robin Roberts (1975, 72.7%)
– Duke Snider (1979, 71.3%)
– Juan Marichal (1982, 73.5%)
– Harmon Killebrew (1983, 71.9%)
– Hoyt Wilhelm (1984, 72%)
– Billy Williams (1986, 74.1%)
– Gaylord Perry (1990, 72.1%)
– Don Sutton (1997, 73.2%)
– Gary Carter (2002, 72.7%)
– Goose Gossage (2007, 71.2%)
– Jim Rice (2008, 72.2%)
– Bert Blyleven (2010, 74.2%)
– Roberto Alomar (2010, 73.7%)
– Craig Biggio (2014, 74.8%)
– Jeff Bagwell (2016, 71.6%)
– Trevor Hoffman (2017, 74%)
– Vladimir Guerrero (2017, 71.7%)
– Edgar Martínez (2018, 70.4%)
– Todd Helton (2023, 72.2%)
With these statistics and historical precedent, there’s every reason to believe that the next ballot will celebrate the career of one of baseball’s greatest all-time closers, Billy Wagner.