Still Not Decided
For most of the 2025-26 season, the MVP race looked like a coronation in progress. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, averaging 31.6 points, 6.5 assists, and 4.4 rebounds per game while shooting 55.3% from the field and leading the Oklahoma City Thunder to a 61-16 record, the best in the Western Conference, was the presumptive winner. Then Victor Wembanyama happened.
With six games remaining in the regular season (ends April 12), Wembanyama holds the No. 1 position on the NBA’s Kia MVP Ladder as of the March 27 update. Betting markets still favor SGA at -260, but Wemby has closed to +250, a dramatic shift from where the odds stood a month ago. Both men are making their best cases in the final stretch, and voters haven’t submitted their ballots yet.
The Case for Each Player
SGA’s case rests on historic efficiency and team success. His 55.3% field goal percentage at 31.6 points per game is a combination almost no guard in NBA history has managed at this volume. OKC’s 61-16 record is the best in the league, and SGA’s defensive contributions (1.4 steals per game, a top-five defense when he’s on the floor) make him a two-way monster. The team-success argument has historically been the most compelling factor in MVP voting, and OKC has the best record by a significant margin.
Wembanyama’s case is built on something harder to quantify: doing things nobody in the NBA has ever done. His last 10 games average 26 points, 12.7 rebounds, 4.1 assists, and 3.4 blocks per game. He’s 22 years old. The Spurs are the No. 2 seed in the West at 59-19, just two games behind OKC – meaning the team-success argument doesn’t heavily favor SGA. Wemby’s presence as the most unique player the sport has ever produced, combined with a Kia Ladder that placed him first, has created real doubt.
History and the Voter Psychology Problem
The MVP is decided by a panel of sports media members who vote before the playoffs. The Kia Ladder, run by NBA.com, is a media-facing indicator of momentum but doesn’t directly influence votes. Historically, the player who leads the Kia Ladder entering the final week has a strong track record of winning – but the odds gap (-260 to +250) suggests the actual voter base still leans toward SGA.
What makes this race particularly fascinating is its generational subtext. Both players are redefining their positions – SGA as the most efficient scoring guard in the modern era, Wemby as a seven-footer who does everything, including things the sport has never seen from anyone his size. If SGA wins, it validates the argument that team success and efficiency should always win MVP. If Wemby wins at 22, it would be one of the youngest MVP victories in league history and the first awarded based primarily on individual transcendence in years.
What’s Next
Both players and their teams have six regular-season games remaining. The NBA season ends April 12, and the MVP announcement typically follows shortly after. Both OKC and San Antonio are also battling for the No. 1 West seed – which means SGA and Wemby have a chance to make additional on-court arguments in the final stretch. Every game is a campaign rally. Watch the final week closely.
