It’s clear to most people that analytics in baseball have gotten way out of control.
The over-reliance on statistics, probabilities and “spin-rate” have turned off a whole lot of fans. After all, there are some teams who in many ways manage games before they are even played.
While clubs should certainly be open to gathering all of the information they can get, there has to be a middle ground.
Too many times, decision-makers seem to forget that games are played by humans with heartbeats and not by soulless robots with pre-determined outcomes.
Sure, some small market teams who can’t afford to spend with the big boys have to find creative ways to compete.
Playing the whole “money ball” game is one of the ways these types of clubs can stay competitive. But let’s all remember, Billy Beane and the Oakland A’s never came close to sniffing a Fall Classic.
Brad Pitt never hoisted the glorious World Series trophy.
Where fans get really turned off is when clubs take their reliance on analytics to the extreme level.
Whether they truly believe in the approach or just want to utilize it as an excuse to keep the payroll down, the entire mindset is flawed.
Boston Red Sox fans are currently dealing with the frustrations of this entire approach.
The Sox are one of the biggest surprises in baseball and are right in the thick of the playoff hunt, yet Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow has made it clear that “data-determined probability” trumps what his own eyes tell him.
In other words, don’t expect Boston to be ultra-aggressive at the trade deadline because the front office still doesn’t believe in the team – no matter how many games they win. (How crazy is that?!)
Perhaps Boston fans should be used to the analytical nonsense by now.
After all, the Celtics just won the NBA championship, and they are one of the most analytical-reliant organizations in all of basketball.
The Celtics’ obsession with analytics has been reaffirmed each and every time head coach Joe Mazzulla opens his mouth.
When he was recently asked about shooting struggles and poor shot selection, Mazzulla said, “we live in an expected world” and pay no attention to actual results. (That’s an actual quote, believe it or not.)
Of course, Mazzulla and the Celtics just won the title so they can say and do whatever they want. But the fact of the matter is they won because they are lightyears more talented than every team they faced on their (let’s face it) easy playoff path.
While Mazzulla and Boston’s front office may feel like their approach has proven to be right, the fact of the matter is the Celtics would be much better if they played smarter and didn’t rely so heavily on misguided analytics (aka, shoot as many three-pointers as possible).
Speaking of which, Mazzulla has said that the “single most important statistic” in all of basketball is “three-point attempt rate.” … No, not actual MAKES – but “attempts.”
But again, it’s an “expected world” and we’re just living in it.
Getting back to baseball, one notable person who has become sick and tired of analytics ruining the game is Hall of Fame pitcher John Smoltz.
Currently serving as FOX Sports’ lead analyst, Smoltz spoke at length on the Bloomberg Business of Sports podcast.
Smoltz blasted the “numbers folks” in baseball for failing to prioritize player health, using pitch counts as a shield against criticism.
“The biggest problem in the game is injuries. And no one seems to want to address it. They just kind of look the other way and say, ‘It’s part of the game,’” Smoltz stated.
According to Smoltz, the emphasis on pitching velocity and spin-rate has placed undue stress on players’ arms.
He criticized the current system, which incentivizes players to maximize their velocity and spin, only to impose strict limits once they approach 100 pitches.
“The reward system is why the players are chasing it, and I don’t blame them, but the reward system is flawed,” Smoltz explained.
“You’re asking pitchers to throw as hard as they can, spin it as much as they can, and then oh by the way limit what they do when they get near 100 pitches.
It’s a broke system, it’s a broke philosophy, you won’t hear anybody talk about it. I’ve been talking about it for 10 years, but until there are rule changes, nothing will change, because philosophically, they think this is the way to navigate a season.”
Smoltz believes that front offices are comfortable pushing pitchers to their limits because they have sufficient depth to replace injured players. This, he argues, reflects a disregard for players’ health.
“Right now, the same thing is going to happen for the rest of time, because this is what they figured out,” he said.
“I have enough arms, they’re not ready, but I have enough arms to fulfill a calendar year if some of my guys get hurt or I’m kind of managing the innings.”
“I would argue that the pitch count has singlehandedly hurt the game in the way that we manage it and the way that they have these golden rules,” Smoltz continued.
He also pointed out the inconsistency in teams’ approach to pitch limits, especially during the postseason, suggesting that this inconsistency reveals the lack of a factual basis for these practices.
Smoltz anticipates that Major League Baseball will eventually mandate changes to address this issue, though he believes the league is waiting for recent rule changes regarding game speed, defensive shifts, and basepaths to settle before implementing further disruptions.
“This is the one area that won’t change until there’s a rule change, and it’s coming,” Smoltz said. “They just can’t enforce it right away because they just made three great rule changes. But the starting pitching has been trying to be eliminated by analytics for a long time.”
To address the problem, Smoltz suggested linking the availability of the designated hitter to the starting pitcher’s tenure in the game. He emphasized the need for bold thinking to solve the issue.
“There are no such things as dumb ideas anymore when you want to change the course of action,” he said.
Former MLB Executive David Samson has previously confirmed that teams expect young pitchers to undergo Tommy John surgery at some point in their careers.
This expectation leads to a strategy where teams exploit young arms for depth over a 162-game season, further highlighting the systemic nature of the problem Smoltz describes.
Smoltz’s critique underscores the complex factors contributing to pitcher injuries, attributing a significant part of the problem to the game’s recent evolution.
What are your thoughts on Smoltz’s comments?
In the bigger picture, what are your overall feelings on analytics in baseball?
Do you agree that teams have become WAY too reliant on them? … Or are you in the camp of people who fully believe in the numbers???