The San Diego Padres have made a significant move by signing rising star Jackson Merrill to a nine-year contract extension that extends through 2034, with a club option for 2035. This deal is set to guarantee Merrill a staggering $135 million, but it has the potential to push upwards to $165 million thanks to performance escalators tied to his plate appearances, as detailed by reputable sources. For every 500 plate appearances he reaches in a season, Merrill can add an additional $1 million to his salary for the following years, which could see the total value of the contract swell to a whopping $204 million. Moreover, the deal includes a $30 million club option for a tenth year, which could become a player option if he finishes among the top five in MVP voting, with additional rewards for achieving a top-ten finish.
Merrill’s breakout performance in 2024 was nothing short of remarkable. While his emergence as a standout player might seem sudden, it’s essential to remember he was a first-round draft pick, taken 27th overall in 2021, and quickly ascended the ranks of baseball’s top prospects during his minor league career. However, it’s worth noting that his experience was still limited throughout his early career. Having been drafted straight out of high school, he had just 200 games under his belt in the minors—none at the Triple-A level and only 46 at Double-A—and he wouldn’t even be celebrating his 21st birthday until April 19, 2024.
Adding to the challenge, Merrill was thrust into a significant defensive transition. Primarily a shortstop in the minors, the Padres had established players like Ha-Seong Kim and Xander Bogaerts in the middle infield. With Trent Grisham’s bat struggling and his subsequent trade to the Yankees as part of the Juan Soto deal, the Padres decided to give Merrill a shot in center field after being impressed with his spring training performances.
Despite his youth and the complexities of adjusting to a pivotal defensive position on the fly, Merrill exceeded expectations. He belted 24 home runs, recording a .292/.326/.500 batting line, translating to a 130 wRC+, which indicates he was 30% above league average. He also swiped 16 bases successfully out of 19 attempts. Defensively, he held his own, earning a league-average rating in center field, which is impressive for a newcomer. Additionally, he logged 11 Outs Above Average, placing him among the top ten center fielders last season.
Overall, Merrill’s contributions proved invaluable, accumulating 5.3 wins above replacement according to FanGraphs and 4.4 via Baseball Reference. Given the competition, particularly from Paul Skenes who was also vying for Rookie of the Year honors, Merrill finished second in the National League voting after capturing seven out of 30 first-place votes. He also made an impressive mark on the MVP ballot, landing in ninth place.
With Kim’s departure in free agency, there was speculation about moving Merrill back to shortstop. However, Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller quickly dispelled that notion, maintaining that Merrill’s successful transition to center field was too valuable to disrupt. The 2025 season has kicked off with a bang for him, as he currently boasts a stellar line of .400/.435/.600 through the first six games, contributing to an undefeated start for the Padres.
Merrill’s quick rise through the organization showcases the Padres’ commitment to nurturing homegrown talent. They selected him with their first-round pick and showed unwavering confidence in him, even discussing a contract extension prior to his major league debut. With his impressive breakout, the Padres might be reflecting on the advantages of sealing a deal earlier, as his earning potential has only surged since then.
Typically, extension costs rise as players progress through their arbitration years and approach free agency. While speculation exists about what figure would have secured an earlier deal, one thing is certain: securing this contract now was wise given the Padres’ financial landscape.
This extension positions Merrill just below the very top tier of pre-arbitration deals, though it remains robust enough to allow him to earn significant income as he approaches free agency. Unlike other pre-arb contracts seen around the league, Merrill’s shorter deal allows flexibility for a lucrative second contract later, especially considering the option to convert the club option into a player option should he maintain his ascent in performance.
For the Padres, this extension reflects their continued commitment to locking down key players despite facing recent budget constraints. Merrill’s deal marks the sixth contract extension worth at least $80 million awarded by the Padres in the last five years, following high-profile extensions for other stars like Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish, and Jake Cronenworth. With Merrill in the fold, the Padres are clearly in it for the long haul, betting on their blossoming talent to lead the franchise into a promising future.
