Notre Dame is expected to start the 2024 football season among the Top 10 teams when all of the polls – both official and unofficial – are announced.
This year, ESPN’s preseason rankings show the Irish in an even more favorable light, placing them 5th.
ESPN’s college football analyst Heather Dinich forecasts Notre Dame as having the 6th best chance of making the College Football Playoff.
According to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), the Irish have a 59.1-percent likelihood of securing a playoff berth and a 4.8-percent chance of winning the national championship.
Notre Dame and Penn State have identical odds of making the playoff, though the Nittany Lions are given a slightly higher 6.6-percent chance of capturing the title.
Dinich, in her analysis, highlights Notre Dame’s potential for a standout season under third-year coach Marcus Freeman.
She notes that ESPN’s FPI predicts an unbeaten season for the Irish. Notre Dame, tied with Oregon, is projected to have a 16-percent chance of entering the playoff undefeated.
“Notre Dame has the potential for a special season in Year 3 under coach Marcus Freeman, and ESPN’s FPI projects the Irish to win all their games. According to ESPN Analytics, Notre Dame is tied with Oregon for the best chance (16%) to enter the playoff undefeated,” Dinich said of the Irish.
“Freeman lured former Notre Dame playcaller Mike Denbrock away from LSU, where he led the nation’s top scoring offense last season. The staff also brought in former Duke quarterback Riley Leonard, and the defensive line should be one of the strengths of the team.
“Notre Dame will no longer feel the pressure of needing an undefeated season to lock in a playoff spot. The independent Irish can’t earn a first-round bye — those spots are reserved for the four highest-ranked conference champions — but Notre Dame has ample opportunities to impress the committee and earn an at-large bid.”
Dinich outlines what could work in Notre Dame’s favor with the committee. She points to a pivotal game against the ACC champions, Florida State, scheduled for November 9.
A win over the Seminoles, if they repeat as ACC champions, would significantly boost Notre Dame’s playoff chances.
Dinich draws a parallel to Texas’s win over Alabama last year, noting that a similar victory over Florida State would be highly regarded by the committee.
“A win over the ACC champs. Notre Dame hosts Florida State on Nov. 9, and the Seminoles are in position to repeat as ACC champions. Because Notre Dame doesn’t belong to a conference, a regular-season win against the eventual ACC champion would be the next-best thing to impress the committee,” Dinich said.
“Last year, one of the reasons the Texas win at Alabama continued to resonate through Selection Day was that Alabama eventually won the SEC.
“The committee would likely view a Notre Dame win over FSU in similar regard — and if Florida State does win the ACC, the Irish would have a head-to-head win against a team that would be guaranteed a spot in the playoff.”
However, Dinich also highlights potential pitfalls for Notre Dame.
The team has struggled with unexpected losses in recent seasons, including setbacks against Marshall in 2022 and Louisville last year.
With the expanded 12-team playoff format providing more leeway, Notre Dame still needs to avoid slipping up against lower-ranked opponents and secure key victories.
A loss to a rival like USC might be acceptable, but defeats to teams like Louisville (ranked 28th in SP+ rankings) could prove costly.
“Another puzzling loss. In each of the past two seasons, Notre Dame has lost at least one game it shouldn’t have. In Freeman’s first season, it was the Week 2 home loss to Marshall,” Dinich elabortated.
“Last year, the Irish squandered an early lead to Louisville, a game they thought they should have won.
“Notre Dame has more wiggle room in the 12-team format, but the committee will still be looking for the Irish to beat its unranked opponents and earn a few signature wins.
With dark-horse Heisman contender Riley Leonard under center, the Irish not only have a strong chance to make the playoffs, they have a true puncher’s chance to shock the college football world and win the national title.
If Freeman’s team is to pull that off, they’ll have to do it without left tackle Charles Jagusah who tore his pectoral muscle and will miss the entire season.
The loss of Jagusah is a significant blow for the Irish who were counting on him to fill the large shoes left by Joe Alt.
What are your thoughts on Notre Dame this season? Where should they be ranked? How much of a shot do you give them to win the national title???