No need to bury the lead: MLBTR is projecting a whopping 12-year, $264 million contract for free agent Cody Bellinger.
The sheer magnitude of that figure might come as a surprise, especially when more recent projections had Bellinger in the range of six years and $160+ million. Given his struggles in the 2021-22 seasons and certain batted ball metrics from the last season, those initial projections seemed reasonable. A six-year deal in the $160 million range would make sense for the Cubs, offering left-handed power, improved plate discipline, defensive prowess in both center field and first base, all while Bellinger is just 28 years old.
However, a 12-year, $264 million contract raises eyebrows for several reasons. Firstly, the current Cubs front office, led by Jed Hoyer, isn’t inclined to offer such lengthy deals, except perhaps for a player of Shohei Ohtani’s caliber. Even agreeing to a seven-year contract for Dansby Swanson was a stretch. Hoyer’s approach tends to favor higher annual values and shorter contract lengths. A 10+ year commitment to Bellinger is improbable.
Secondly, budget constraints are a reality that fans may not like but must accept. External evaluators must consider contract value. A 12-year, $264 million deal is, in the writer’s view, exorbitant for Cody Bellinger. While the AAV (Average Annual Value) of $22 million may seem attractive, committing this much money to a player until he’s approaching 40 years old, with a substantial portion of it likely going to waste in later years, raises concerns.
Moreover, history suggests that center fielders’ defensive performance tends to decline after the age of 30, a position that Pete Crow-Armstrong may eventually take over for the Cubs.
The question remains: Will Bellinger’s market truly reach these heights? The author offers an annual rule of thumb: for top-tier free agents, add an extra year and several million dollars to what might seem like a reasonable deal. In Bellinger’s case, this could translate to a seven-year contract worth around $200 million. While still a significant allocation of resources, it’s not outrageous.
However, last year’s free-agent deals deviated from this model, as some players secured contracts that disrupted traditional expectations. The mentioned 12-year, $264 million projection for Bellinger could be an attempt to acknowledge this shift, similar to deals struck by players like Xander Bogaerts, Trea Turner, Aaron Judge, and Bryce Harper. These players opted for the largest possible guarantees while allowing teams to spread the payments over more years without violating luxury tax regulations.
In conclusion, the writer’s gut feeling suggests that Bellinger’s market won’t ultimately reach this level. However, it may take some time to find out. Projections for various other players may also appear on the high side, but some do seem reasonable and plausible.
This article offers a detailed analysis of MLBTR’s player contract projections and their implications for the future free-agent market.