In the high-stakes atmosphere of the NBA playoffs, relying solely on box scores to determine the outcome of a game can sometimes lead to a simplistic understanding of what’s really going on. This was starkly illustrated in the Boston Celtics’ 108-105 overtime loss to the New York Knicks in Game 1 of their second-round matchup. The Celtics, who dominated the regular-season series against the Knicks with four straight victories and a commanding average margin of 16.3 points, now find themselves in an unexpected 0-1 hole.
The culprit? A historically poor shooting night from beyond the arc, as Boston set a playoff record by missing 45 3-point attempts. That’s right—45. It’s tough to win basketball games when the shots that defined your success throughout the season just won’t fall.
Now, let’s not take away from the Knicks. Their defensive effort deserves recognition; they were attentive and aggressive, rallying back from a 20-point deficit in the second half. Moreover, their ability to execute key shots under pressure was impressive, adding to their overall performance.
However, panic shouldn’t be the order of the day for Boston. They should actually take some encouragement from the narrow margin, especially considering they shot a dismal 15-of-60 from beyond the arc, contributing to a mere 35.1% overall shooting from the field. After all, head coach Joe Mazzulla remains optimistic, stating, “I look at the process and the shot quality. So our shot quality was high.”
Putting numbers behind Mazzulla’s assessment, the statistics reveal that out of Boston’s 60 three-point attempts, a staggering 56 were classified as open, meaning the nearest defender was at least 4 feet away. Their shooting was particularly disappointing on those 24 wide-open attempts, where they converted just 29.2%. To put this into perspective, during the regular season, Boston was hitting 40.7% of their wide-open threes, ranking fifth in the entire league. Even the underwhelming Orlando Magic managed a 35.1% success rate on similar looks.
“I think we took a lot of shots that we want certain guys taking,” Celtics star Jayson Tatum reflected after the game. “Sure, we could look back and wish we’d driven the ball more, especially after missing so many shots, but it’s a make-or-miss league.” Tatum appropriately highlighted the tug-of-war between sticking to their winning formula and adjusting tactics mid-game.
Throughout the season, the Celtics have thrived on their ability to stretch the floor with long-range shooting. They boasted the second-best offensive efficiency while attempting a league-high average of 43.1 three-pointers per game. Against the Knicks, they attempted an even higher rate—48.3 shot attempts from beyond the arc, boasting an offensive rating of 130.2 over the four regular-season games. Such efficiency indicates how crucial their outside shooting has been in generating success.
The Knicks understand this danger. New York’s Josh Hart acknowledged the challenge posed by Boston’s shooters, emphasizing the need for a fierce defensive effort: “We were kind of trying to take away 3s, and they still got up 60.” Hart highlighted the strategy of making it physical to limit Boston’s effectiveness from beyond the arc.
In essence, the Celtics have a successful blueprint to take down New York. They need to exploit the Knicks’ vulnerabilities, particularly targeting defenders like Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns in pick-and-roll situations. By doing so, they can either generate open looks from three or create driving opportunities that lead to easier shots.
What if Boston had merely put forth a mediocre shooting performance instead of the record-breaking night they experienced? They’d likely have been celebrating a 1-0 series lead rather than reflecting on their missed opportunities. As the series progresses, it’s crucial for both teams to adjust. If the Celtics continue to generate that many open looks, it’s hard to imagine the Knicks advancing, even if they’ve made their mark with defense thus far. The chess match is just beginning, and the stakes couldn’t be higher.
