Grapevine, Texas – In the realm of college football, statement wins carry substantial weight. The College Football Playoff selection committee values victories against ranked opponents, and Ohio State has notched two such impressive wins against No. 11 Penn State and No. 15 Notre Dame. These triumphs have propelled the Buckeyes to the pinnacle in the inaugural ranking release, but they mustn’t grow complacent.
Reigning national champion Georgia lurks closely at No. 2, poised for a potential resurgence in November. The Bulldogs’ upcoming three-game stretch features clashes against CFP-ranked rivals, commencing with No. 12 Missouri, followed by contests against No. 10 Ole Miss and No. 17 Tennessee.
While Georgia boasts wins over Kentucky and Florida, two unranked teams with three losses, these victories hold more value in the committee’s eyes than No. 3 Michigan’s best win, which came against 6-2 Rutgers. The unbeaten Florida State secured the No. 4 spot, though its solitary win against a ranked opponent is against No. 14 LSU. This sets the stage for FSU to maintain its perfection and solidify its position.
In the world of the Pac-12, six teams find themselves in the rankings, but none within the coveted top four positions. With crucial matchups still to come, the race for playoff contention remains wide open. Notably, No. 5 Washington, the sole undefeated Power 5 team, finds itself on the outside looking in initially. Yet, the Huskies have a golden opportunity to impress the committee with upcoming games against three consecutive ranked opponents, namely No. 20 USC, No. 18 Utah, and No. 16 Oregon State.
Oregon, holding the highest rank among one-loss teams at No. 6, underscores the Pac-12’s depth. Furthermore, No. 16 Oregon State, No. 18 Utah, No. 19 UCLA, and No. 20 USC bolster the conference’s reputation. The Pac-12’s top contender is poised to accumulate a strong resume given the caliber of conference opponents.
The SEC maintains its position of strength with three teams in the top 10. While Alabama encountered a sluggish start and must impress the selection committee with a win against No. 14 LSU, Georgia’s schedule remains backloaded. The head-to-head loss to No. 7 Texas complicates matters for Alabama, making each game a must-win situation.
Notably, the committee considers common opponents when comparing teams, potentially putting Alabama and Florida State side by side, with a focus on their results against LSU. Alabama holds the advantage of a top-10 victory, a feat Florida State must aspire to replicate.
In the Big 12, Oklahoma’s prospects of securing a top-four spot as a one-loss conference champion have brightened. The rankings include Kansas, Oklahoma State, and Kansas State, offering validation to the Sooners’ loss to Kansas. An upcoming top-25 clash against Oklahoma State provides an opportunity to strengthen their case. However, it could also serve as a potential spoiler for their Bedlam rivals. The conference’s two ranked teams, soon to depart for the SEC, have elevated the Big 12’s profile.
The pressure is mounting on Florida State to maintain its undefeated status, considering the ACC boasts only two ranked teams, No. 4 Florida State and No. 13 Louisville. The absence of a head-to-head matchup between these ACC representatives during the regular season complicates the Seminoles’ strength of schedule. Florida State may need to remain undefeated as the ACC champion to secure a top-four spot, especially with the Pac-12’s top teams closely trailing.
As for the Group of 5, No. 24 Tulane has surged ahead of undefeated No. 25 Air Force in the rankings, thanks to its more challenging schedule. The highest-ranked Group of 5 champion secures a berth in a New Year’s Six Bowl. Tulane’s unbeaten record in the American Athletic Conference and a sole loss to No. 10 Ole Miss distinguish it from Air Force, which faces a considerable strength of schedule challenge.
Looking ahead to the transition to a 12-team College Football Playoff, the initial rankings offer a glimpse of the changes to come. The top four Power 5 conference champions will receive first-round byes in this expanded format. If the rankings hold, these beneficiaries would be No. 1 Ohio State, No. 2 Georgia, No. 4 Florida State, and No. 5 Washington.
Under this system, No. 3 Michigan would miss out on a first-round bye, as the highest-ranked Big Ten team would be No. 1 Ohio State. The potential first-round matchups offer intriguing scenarios, including Tulane’s visit to Michigan and Penn State’s clash with Oregon.
However, the landscape beyond 2023 remains uncertain due to ongoing conference realignment. As prominent teams switch conferences, the balance of power is shifting, posing questions about the future composition of the 12-team playoff. Conference commissioners and the CFP must navigate these complexities in the coming months.