With the 2023 MLB season now in the rearview mirror and the Hot Stove heating up, it’s time to focus on some of the marquee names hitting the free-agent market.
Name: Josh Hader
Position: Left-Handed Pitcher
Team: San Diego Padres
Age (as of Opening Day 2024): 29
2023 Stats: 2-3, 33 saves/38 save opportunities, 1.28 ERA, 56 1/3 IP, 85 K, 1.101 WHIP, 321 ERA+
For the second consecutive offseason, the premier closer in the game is set to explore free agency. This time around, Josh Hader is hitting the open market without signing an extension before free agency commenced, unlike Edwin Díaz a year ago.
In 2023, Hader delivered a stellar performance, boasting a minuscule 1.28 ERA over 61 appearances. However, questions arose late in the season regarding his willingness to pitch more than one inning, sparking concerns as the Padres’ playoff hopes dwindled.
Hader’s statistics in 2023 were nothing short of elite, ranking among the top 10 percent in various categories, including chase percentage, whiff percentage, strikeout percentage, barrel percentage, hard-hit percentage, xERA, and xBA. He made a triumphant return to an elite level after a somewhat shaky 2022 season.
Hader’s career achievements speak volumes: five All-Star selections, three Trevor Hoffman Awards, two first-team All-MLB selections, and a career ERA of 2.50. If you’re in the market for a closer this offseason, there’s no one better than the lefty, but he won’t come cheap.
Potential Suitors (listed alphabetically)
Cubs: Newly appointed Cubs manager Craig Counsell has a close relationship with Hader, having managed him in Milwaukee from 2017-22. Adding Hader to the Cubs’ bullpen could significantly bolster their relief pitching, especially considering Hader’s strong track record at Wrigley Field.
Dodgers: The Dodgers had the second-lowest bullpen ERA in the National League last season, and Hader could enhance their bullpen even further, potentially allowing the starting rotation to breathe easier.
Orioles: Baltimore’s bullpen took a hit with Félix Bautista’s Tommy John surgery, leaving a void in the ninth inning. The Orioles are reportedly open to spending money this offseason and adding Hader would be a logical move as they aim to defend their American League East title.
Phillies: With Craig Kimbrel on the free-agent market, the Phillies may be on the hunt for another late-inning reliever to complement Seranthony Domínguez and José Alvarado. Hader could be the answer to solidify their bullpen.
Rangers: The Rangers had the lowest save percentage from the eighth inning onward in 2023, converting only 60 percent of their opportunities. Pairing Hader with José Leclerc could be a game-changer for the Rangers, who have shown a willingness to spend in recent years.
Yankees: While Clay Holmes has established himself as a legitimate closer, the Yankees’ bullpen needs reinforcements, especially if Michael King transitions to the rotation in 2024. If their pursuit of top starting pitchers falls through, Hader could become a prime target to fortify their bullpen.
Scout’s Take:
“Josh is an accomplished closer coming off of a dominant year and is in line to do well in a market that has limited options at his position. He relies primarily on a fastball/slider combo that is well above average, with swing-and-miss qualities to both pitches. The fastball velocity has regressed, and longstanding issues with walks are causes for concern as he ages over the course of his next contract. Josh is a loose and athletic player who should continue to hold his stuff over the next several years, which will allow him to be an impactful closer for the team that values that spot on its roster.”
Buyer Beware:
Hader’s walk rate of 13 percent (4.8 per nine innings) in 2023 was among the worst in the league, issuing 30 free passes in 56 1/3 innings. While his whiff rate of 33.1 percent was still impressive, it marked a career low. If Hader’s swing-and-miss abilities continue to decline, it could signal a decrease in overall effectiveness.
For Comp’s Sake:
Edwin Díaz set a new standard for relief pitchers last offseason when he signed a five-year, $102 million contract to stay with the Mets. Díaz’s 2022 season closely resembles Hader’s 2023 performance, and even though Hader is a year older than Díaz was at the time of his deal, many anticipate Hader to set a new record with a contract surpassing Díaz’s in value.