The Texas Rangers have won the 2023 World Series with a dominant 4-1 victory over the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Rangers’ starter, Nathan Eovaldi, and a 9th inning run-scoring surge helped them secure a 5-0 win in Game 5 to close out the series. With the baseball calendar now turning to free agency, teams are given an exclusive negotiating window before top players can hit the open market.
As teams consider adding to their roster via trades or expensive free agents, some may wonder if there are any lessons to learn from the Rangers’ roster as to what might work in the playoffs. However, the Rangers’ win shows that there is no one formula, no magic bullet acquisition, no one-size-fits-all explanation. It’s all about luck.
World Series wins aren’t predictable. The Rangers tried to follow most of the playoff narrative formulas. They signed Jacob deGrom in the 2022-23 offseason for dominant starting pitching. After deGrom went down with an injury, they were aggressive at the trade deadline, bringing in Aroldis Chapman, Max Scherzer, and Jordan Montgomery. However, Chapman was much worse in Texas in the regular season and allowed 15 baserunners in eight postseason innings. A ludicrously lucky 95% strand rate saved him from being one of the postseason’s worst pitchers. Scherzer barely pitched, returning from injury in time to allow seven earned runs in just 9.2 innings in October. Montgomery was excellent, but far from a dominant bullpen or dominant starters, the Rangers blew leads late in games and relied on generally mediocre starters.
Corey Seager won his second World Series MVP award, which would seem to fulfill the “clutch” hitting narrative. However, Seager was excellent in the 2020 playoffs, yes, but prior to 2020 was 24 for 118 in October, a .203 batting average. In 2021, the year after his postseason tear, he hit .188. If Seager is so obviously clutch, why was he so bad in October for so long, then great, then terrible, then great again?
So why did Texas win? The Rangers won simply because they were a good team that had enough of the breaks go their way. The Diamondbacks during Game 5 were 0-9 with runners in scoring position. It’s hard to score when you don’t hit in key situations. Texas also went 11-0 on the road, something that’s never happened before in October. There’s nothing special about the Rangers that makes them play better away from home; in fact, they were 40-41 on the road this regular season.
Playoff success comes down to having a good team and hoping the breaks go your way. That your best hitters get hot at the right time, like Marcus Semien hitting big home runs late in the World Series. Or that previously unexceptional pitchers get hot at the right time, like Jordan Montgomery and Nate Eovaldi. There’s no formula to take away from this year’s champion, just more confirmation that the playoffs are mostly random. That certainly doesn’t make it any less meaningful for the Rangers and their fans though.