As the New York Yankees prepare for the upcoming season, what was once considered a top-10 rotation has faced a significant downturn in just a couple of weeks. It’s a hard pill to swallow for a franchise with championship aspirations, and the recent news about their pitching staff has raised serious concerns.
The early optimism was quickly overshadowed when the Yankees announced that Luis Gil would be sidelined for at least three months due to shoulder issues. Gil made waves last season as a rookie, showcasing a powerful arm and a promising future, so losing him is a tough break. To add fuel to the fire, Gerrit Cole, the ace of the rotation, is also in trouble. After experiencing elbow discomfort, he’s been advised to consider Tommy John surgery, which would deal another heavy blow to the Yankees’ pitching arsenal. Cole’s situation isn’t set in stone just yet, as he seeks a second opinion—though it’s clear that New York’s chances hinge on how these injuries unfold.
So, what does this mean for the rotation moving forward? According to depth charts, just a few weeks ago, the Yankees were projected to log a combined 326 innings from Cole and Gil, putting them sixth among MLB teams in rotation strength. With Cole potentially out for the year and Gil’s absence, those projections have taken a nosedive. In fact, if Cole undergoes season-ending surgery, New York could find itself among the bottom tier of rotations in terms of wins above replacement. It’s a staggering fall from grace that emphasizes how quickly fortunes can change in baseball.
While Carlos Rodón adds talent to the rotation, he comes with a track record that raises eyebrows—injuries and bouts of poor command could limit his effectiveness. Max Fried is another promising option, but he carries a similar history of missed time in recent years. Relying on veteran arms like Marcus Stroman and Carlos Carrasco doesn’t inspire confidence either; both have shown signs of decline, with Carrasco’s ERA over the last two seasons starting with a six.
However, there may be a glimmer of hope for the Yankees amidst this turmoil, and it could come from their younger pitchers. Clarke Schmidt emerged last season with a revamped approach that showcased his strong sinker and sweeping slider. He increased his cutter usage against lefties and found success with his high sinkers, all while possessing an elite curveball that ranked first in Stuff+ metrics among pitchers with enough innings. With a projected workload of around 149 innings, he’s certainly capable of stepping into a more prominent role.
In addition, young arms like Will Warren have the potential to contribute. Known for his sinker/sweeper combination, Warren is developing his pitch mix to better combat left-handed hitters. Drawing comparisons to fellow Yankees pitcher Michael King, Warren has tools that could translate to success, especially with a solid four-seam fastball and an improving changeup as part of his arsenal. He’s shown flashes of brilliance, which is encouraging for a Yankees team in dire need of reliable arms.
Yet, challenges remain for the Yankees’ rotation. Up-and-coming pitchers such as Cam Schlittler and Chase Hampton pose intriguing options, but both face significant hurdles as they adapt to the big leagues. Schlittler has shown promise with a strong fastball, but his limited experience at the higher levels of the minors suggests he might need more time before being called upon significantly. Meanwhile, Hampton’s recent Tommy John surgery wipes him off the list for the season, adding another wrinkle to their plans.
Across the broader landscape, the Yankees’ player development system has come under scrutiny, particularly highlighted by recent comments regarding the Mets being better positioned. Despite criticisms, New York has produced standout prospects through their development system, although they have lost several key personnel to other organizations recently. In a year filled with uncertainty, the performance of their younger talent could be the silver lining the Yankees desperately need.
In sum, the road ahead is fraught with challenges, but the Yankees’ reliance on their emerging talent might just provide the spark needed to navigate this turbulent time. While the injuries to key players are indeed disheartening, it’s also a moment for the next generation of Yankees to step up and prove themselves on the grand stage. For New York, the future could depend on how quickly these young pitchers rise to the occasion and fill the gaps in a rotation that has been impacted by injuries and uncertainty.
